Options calculator — BTC profit/loss and break-even
Pick a strategy and expiry; you can change strike, price and quantity. Prices: combined mark price of four exchanges (2026-11-06 21:29 UTC, BTC ≈ $75,928). Gold line = result at expiry, dashed = if sold before expiry (sliders change time and IV).
| BTC move | Now | Day 2 | Day 4 | Expiry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ -20% | −$1,390 | −$1,390 | −$1,390 | −$1,390 |
| ▼ -10% | −$1,375 | −$1,387 | −$1,390 | −$1,390 |
| ▼ -5% | −$1,145 | −$1,270 | −$1,367 | −$1,390 |
| 0% | +$20.17 | −$245 | −$591 | −$1,390 |
| ▲ +5% | +$2,642 | +$2,495 | +$2,371 | +$2,335 |
| ▲ +10% | +$6,165 | +$6,139 | +$6,131 | +$6,131 |
| ▲ +20% | +$13,724 | +$13,724 | +$13,724 | +$13,724 |
Delta 0.502 · Gamma 1.06e-4 · Theta −$116/day · Vega $40.23/pt
* Chance of profit at expiry: from the log-normal distribution implied by this expiry's ATM implied volatility (risk-neutral); not a forecast. IV held constant in the scenario table. Trading and settlement fees not included.
Frequently asked questions
How is option profit/loss calculated?
At expiry a call's profit = max(0, price − strike) − premium; a put's = max(0, strike − price) − premium. Selling flips the sign. Multi-leg results are summed. Before expiry the option's value uses Black-Scholes with remaining time and implied volatility.
Where do the prices come from?
Open-interest-weighted average of mark prices for the same expiry and strike on Deribit, OKX, Bybit and Binance (every 5 minutes). Real bid/ask may differ; you can type your own price.
How reliable is the chance of profit?
It is implied by the options' implied volatility (risk-neutral log-normal). It is the market-implied probability, not a forecast.